If the genie in the pot gives three wishes? One of my choices would definitely be knowing about the future. Apex TV has a channel on YouTube showing interviews with alleged time travelers from future times seems incredibly cool. An obvious question on one of the interviews with a supposed time traveler from 2030 was who will be US President in 2028 and if robots will be rulers then. Whatever their point was, whether the interviews are fake or staged, it seems a cool concept being able to predict and know about the future or some mystery, gnosis.
The Gnosis platform
Gnosis (GNO) is a platform that allows you to not only predict the future, but get paid for it. Double cool right? The platform, is constructing a blockchain to allow participants to host and interface decentralized betting markets. The GNO coin was launched in April 2017, with a maximum cap of 10 million tokens set. Only 5% of these tokens were released for the token sale as the company raised over $12 million during the ICO. This represents a potential for massive growth when compared to its largest competitor Augur (REP) that raised $5 million by releasing 80% of its tokens back in late 2015.
How does Gnosis work?
Before understanding the blockchain aspect of prediction markets, understanding prediction markets is key. Let’s use a simple, maybe silly, example as our example ̶ time travelers. Not going as far as 2030 but rather a week from today. We’ll name the traveler Lujan.
Lujan works at a news station. Lujan supposedly comes back from the future and tells two of his colleagues, Odi and Rick, that one of them will get a promotion next week. Last time he predicted someone getting fired on Monday, it happened. He offers them prediction coupons to distribute
These two go out to the office and sell coupons to other colleagues. Some got coupons in Odi’s favor the others favored Rick. Anyone who holds the ticket of the winner to promotion will be able to redeem the coupon at $1 from Lujan next week.
To make the competition more interesting, trading of coupons is allowed during the week. In case any information leaks, maybe Odi was seen with happily talking to the boss or Rick did something, the prices of these coupons will surely change. Let’s say some important information highly correlated with Rick being promoted leaks, Those with Odi’s coupons will be willing to sell them at a discount to willing buyers who think Odi will still win while Rick’s will sell at a premium.
This is basically a gnosis in real life, but lacks a trust system and is still kind of decentralized. But you get the overall picture. By the end of the week, some will hold worthless tickets and some will have made a profit from redeeming the coupons.
The platform is designed on the Ethereum blockchain given its extensive adoption and popularity. The Ethereum blockchain also offers the platform a scalable and easy to use platform. Once on the Gnosis framework you can create the market and link it to an event. The event consists of different markets created by people all over the world. Once the period to create markets is closed, other users in the network can now purchase shares on the event using collateral tokens. The winners of the prediction will be given the ‘outcome tokens’. The shares are obtained using the GNO token.
After hitting highs of over $400 back in January, Gnosis (GNO) tumbled to below $100 in the subsequent 2 months to hit a low of $56, which is the lowest the token has closed at since May 2017. The coin has since seen a sharp rise to $94 after the recent overall green movement in the cryptocurrency market.